Forecasters are confirming it — Uruguay is in a strong-to-very-strong El Niño event that will shape the rest of 2026 and stretch well into 2027. The regional signature: more rainfall intensity and more rainy days across the country. Mind you that the picture is from 2016. 

We’re already seeing it on the ground. About a week ago, many parts of Uruguay saw over 200mm of rain in a single weekend, with storms strong enough to damage electricity poles and wash away sections of fencing. It’s a good reminder that this pattern isn’t just a forecast on paper — it’s already shaping the season, and it’s worth factoring storm resilience, particularly fencing and infrastructure, into farm planning over the coming months.

Below, we break down what this means sector by sector.

Cattle

Wetter conditions across Uruguay’s river basins translate quickly into better pasture growth and quality, and fewer critical dry stretches during summer. More grass means more weight gain and stronger forage stability heading into next year. It’s no surprise Uruguay’s livestock sector is already being described as “firm” in 2026 — one of the pillars of the country’s export income, alongside beef, wool, and dairy.

Row Crops

Soybean and maize typically benefit from El Niño’s more regular rainfall pattern in this part of South America — a contrast to central-northern Brazil, which often faces water deficits during these events. That imbalance could open real opportunity for Uruguay to gain share in South American soy exports, with stronger premiums and better margins for local producers. The main thing to manage is harvest logistics if rainfall runs heavy — a planning consideration, not a fundamental constraint.

Winter Crops (Wheat & Rapeseed): A Record Season Taking Shape

Uruguay’s 2026 winter campaign got off to its strongest start in years — rapeseed, canola, and carinata sowing raced ahead of schedule, with wheat and barley close behind. If El Niño stays moderate through the rest of winter, the country is on track for one of its best winter grain harvests this century. The one thing to watch is timing: excess rainfall during flowering or grain-fill could still weigh on yields, so this is a season where good agronomic management matters more than usual — but the starting position is about as strong as it gets.

Forestry

Established eucalyptus and pine plantations are far less sensitive to a wet season than annual crops. The main watch-point is harvest and extraction logistics on unpaved roads during peak rainfall — not tree growth itself. This is exactly why forestry continues to serve as such a stabilizing asset class in a diversified Uruguayan land portfolio.

The Bigger Picture

This is a season where the underlying strength of Uruguay’s agricultural system — steady rain, productive soils, and diversified output across beef, grain, and timber — really shows.

At Suma AgroValor, we’re monitoring these conditions closely across the properties under our management, with particular attention to infrastructure resilience and harvest timing where it matters most. If you’d like to discuss how this season’s outlook applies to your operation, get in touch with our team.